【转】 大空头
2016-10-29 10:33:03 来源:豆瓣 作者: 【 】 浏览:8013次 评论:0

  Based on a true story.
  It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble,It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.
  ——Mark Twain让我们陷入困境的不是无知,而是自己笃信的谬判。                  ——马克 吐温
  [开场]“Hiya Frank.How are the wife and kids?smoke?”
  In the late '70s,banking wasn't a job you were into to make large sums of money.It was a fucking snooze.
  “How about those Mets?”
  Filled with losers,like selling insurance or accounting.
  You might not know who he is,but he changed your life more than Michael Jordan,the iPod,YuTube put together.
  “Alright ,gentlemen,let's get some money in here!let's make some money,what do you say?”
  You see,Lewis didn't know it yet,but he had already changed banking forever with one simple idea.
  The mondy came raining down.And for the first time ,the banker went from the counry club to the stirp club.
  And America barely noticed noticed as it number one industry became boring old banking.
  And then one day,almost 30 years later,in 2008,it all came crashing down.
  it's been called the worst financial ciris in modern times.Certainly the largest financial disater in the decades in this country.And perhaps the end of an era in Ameriacn business.
  But there were someone who saw it coming.While the whole word was having a big old party,few ousiders and weirdos saw what no one else cloud.
  Not me,i'm not a weirdo, i'm pretty fucking cool.but we'll meet again later.
  These outsider saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy.And they saw it by doing something the rest of sucker never thought to do.They looked.
  During the 1930s,the housing market collapased nationwide,by roughly 80%.I mean there were specifi identifiers,extremly recognizable.
  I‘ve always been more comfortable alone.I believe maybe it is because of my glass eye.I lost the eye in a childhood illness,it seperates me from people.
  "let's wash it off and put it were playing so great ,son.I even heard the coach say it."
  "Can we just go home?"
  Most social interaction are awkward for me and for the person.Even when i tried to compliment someone,it comes out wrong.
  “You have a very nice haircut,did you do it yourself?"
  I’m sorry,i'm just...i am going on and on,my wife told me i need to share more.
  “That seems healthy."
  “So do i get the job?i really think i can help you fund."
  “Is there anything you want me to work on for can let me know latter ,i can come back."
  "I’m a nice guy all day long.ask anyone,i'm a pleasure to work with.But the second my son screws up,i am yelling at him just like my dad did to me."
  Sorry i'm late,no get this,i met this retail banker yesterday,i'm supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund,but instead,i start grilling him about overdraft penalties .And this creep is making billions off screwing over people this way.And i'm getting madder and madder,and i asked him,l looked into his face and i say,"How can you sleep at night,knowing that you are ripping off working people?"And you know what he did?he left.He just walked out of the lunch,doesn't say a word.What the fuck is that?
  “We have talked about this numerous times,you can't come in late and hijack the entire session.Mark,i know you suffered a  terrible loss,maybe you want to talk about that."
  说了几百遍了,你不能这么晚到还打断整个会议。马克,我知道你失去了最重要的亲人,不如跟我们谈谈这个吧?[迈克尔与投资人]Micheal,how are you guy?最近怎么样?Lawrence,i found something really interesting.劳伦斯,发现个好东西。
  Great,whenever you find something interesting ,we all tend to make money.What stock are you valuing?
  No no no,no stocks,i want to short the housing market.
  Really?but the housing market is rock solid.Tell them i'll be there in a minute.I don't think you mean to do that,but sometimes you sound very dismiss and superior.Micheal,just take a beat,we'll talk about this later,okay?
  Lawrence,please,don't patronize me.
  “Does it make you feel bored .Or stupid?well,it supposed to.Wall Streets loves to use cofusing terms to make you think only then can do what they do,or even better,for you to just leave the fuck alone.”
  “I don't want that kind of business,money is not money,that's bad money.Let me asked this,what company treats it customers that shittily and succeed?fine,okay,goldman,you're right,”
  Mark Baum had built his career on never assuming anyone or any company was legit wihout proving it.When he was a kid he excelled at studying the Talmud in Yeshiva,Whatever.But one day his rabbi told his mom why.
  “Paul is a fine boy,and Mark is a excellent student of the Torah and the Talmud.”
  “Then what's the problem ,rabbi?"
  “It's the reason that Mark is tudying so hard.He is looking for inconsistencies in the word of God!"
  “So has he found any?"...
  they called,you did it again..
  There was no cabs,what was i supposed to do ?At least i went.
  You're running around like you have to right every wrong in the're so angry.
  Fine,you know what,i'm a mena guy and i'm pissed off.
  You had no idea the kind of crap poeople are pulling.And everyone's walking around like they're in  a golddamn Enya video.They're all getting screw,you know.
  You know what they are care about?They care about the ballgame.Or they care about what actress just went into the rehab.
  I think you should try medication.
  No no we agreed.if it interfered with work.
  You hate Wall Street,maybe it's time to quit.You are miserable.
  Mark,i am sad everyday about what happened.i know you must feel the same,but you never show it .i know how close you were to your brother.Everyday i think you're gonna talk about that,but you never do.will you at least think about the idea of making a change?
  Fine,fine,honey,you know what?i will consider it.But honestly,i'm okay,i really am.
  This is Wall Street,if you offer us free money,we are going to take it.My one concern is that when the bonds fail,i want to be certain of payment in case of solvency issues with your bank
  I’m sorry,are you for real?you want to bet against the housing market,and you're worried we won't pay you.
  Yes,that's correct.
  Unless the market crashes.The market on housing's never gonna crash.Because it's solid right now.I mean,who doesn't pay the mortgages?
  We'll be in touch,send some paperwork over.
  I like these cups,can i take one for my son?
  Have...yes,yes.have two.
  [导师质疑迈克尔]How much in total?总额有多少?$1.3billion.13亿美元。
  What?that's pretty much all of Scion's liquidity.Micheal,that's highly distressing.
  Lawrence,that's not all of our liquidity.And i'm not certain that you really understand this trade.
  This is a certainty.稳赚不赔。
  Micheal,i consider myself a mentor to you.but our company is not comfortable with this investment,am i being clear?
  Lawrence,i have full autonomy when it comes to investment can read our agreement.
  Do not throw our inception agreement in my face,Micheal.we had underlying understanding you wouldn't act like a goddamn crazy man.
  This is not crazy,it's all very logical
  we lose millions until something that is never happened before happens?
  “Mark refued to kiss the ring of people with checkbooks so he had to set us his fund under Morgan Stanly's umbrella.his small team reflected his distrust of the system.”
  You guys are sick,you sick.
  She says this job is making me unhappy.
  But you are happy when you're unhappy.
  That was a weird call.
  You take longer with a wrong number than anybody else.
  He was talking about shorting housing bonds.And in the middle of the call he reliazed he had the wrong FrontPoint.
  That happens like five times a day that somebody get the wrong FrontPoint,we should change our name.
  “That's right,these lucky son of bitches caught wind of the one of the best trade in Wall Street history from a wrong number,they should have paid 10% to my fuckstick assistant.”
  So how many people have you talked to about this trade.
  A few,that's definitely some intrest.Alright,a few people have invested us in just to laugh at me on this that you?Is that you ?is that what this is?
  that's not what this is.that's just how Mark is.Let's see what you got.
  Look at him,that's my quant.your what?You notice anything different about him?look at his face.
  That's pretty racist.你这种族歧视啊。
  Look at his eyes,i'll get you a hints.He's name is Yang,he won a math competition in China,he doesn't even speak English!Yeah i'm sure of the math
  Actually my name is Jiang and i do speak English,Jared likes to say i don't because he thinks it makes me more authentic.And i got second in the national math competition.
  I work for the bank,i don't think like a bank.Big bank small bank,i'd like to make money,all right?
  Let me put in this way,i'm standing in front of a burning house,and i offered you fire insurance on it.
  Here's word famous chef to explain.
  Okay ,I'm a chef on Sunday afternoon setting the menu at a big restaurant.I ordered my fish on Friday which is the mortgage bond that Micheal shorted.But some of the fresh fish doesn't sell,i don't know why,mabye it just came out haibut has the intelligence of a dolphin.So what am i going to  do?Throw all the this unsold fish,which is the BBB level of the bond in the garbage and take the loss?No way.Being the crafty and morally onerous chef that i am,whatever crappy levels of the bond i don't sell,i throw it into seafood stew.See,it's not old fish,it's whold new thing.And the best part is they're eating 3-day-old halibut.that,is CDO.
  好。我现在正在周末的餐厅里开菜单。周五的时候我订了一批鱼,这就像迈克尔要沽空的房产抵押债券。不过大家听信新闻说比目鱼有海豚的智商,所以其他鱼就卖不出去,这就像BBB房贷。所以我能怎么办,把卖不掉的鱼扔掉认赔了事?开什么玩笑,我可是精明又节省的主厨。这些卖不掉的债券,我全部拿来炖海鲜汤。然后它们就再不是卖不掉的鱼了,这变成一道全新的菜。最棒的是,我们在给客人吃三天前的东西。这就是担保债券凭证。[贾瑞德兜售房贷保险]Fuckin A,Jered.
  Shut your fucking mouth.
  This guy walks into my office and says,those same bankers got greedy,they lost track of the market.
  And i can profit off thier stuipidity?
  Fuck,yeah,i want him to be right.
  How come you don't hate this guy?He's everything you taught us not to trust.
  I can't hate him,he's so transparent in his self-interest that i kind of respect him.
  Look,it's two very simple there a housing bubble?And if there is,how exposed are the banks?
  Let's get on this quickly too,because if he's right,every loser with a couple million bucks and a fund is gonna be jumping on this.
  It's just a meeting though,you know?people have meeting all the time.
  Chris,i'm on Ted's desk.
  We're so excited to get set up on you trading platform.
  Cool.hear,have a seat a second,
  So I...Ted had asked me to do some meeting prep,but i cannot find any marketing materials on your guys.Could we see some of your offering documents?Can you tell us how much you manage?
  Of course,we're doing $30 million right now.But we started four years ago with $110,000.So as you can see,this is pretty phenomenal returns.当然。
  That's really cool.But you guys are under the capital requirments for an ISDA.
  By how much?还差多少?
  By one billion four hundred seventy million,so...a lot。
  This makes me look bad,doesn't it,that we didn't know what the capital requirments were?
  It's not great.But...keep up those returns and give us a call way down the line.You know.Okay?have a good one guys.
  Shit! who the fuck schedules a meeting at 4:50 in the afternoon?......I'm young yet,i can still do something with my life.
  Gentlemen,i need you to leave.先生,你们该离开了。
  Yep,yep,we're going,let's go.好好,我们就走了。
  Look at this look at this,this guy,says that the housing market's a giant market.This is crazy,this is crazy stuff.And the whole housing market is about to collapse?
  “For Jamie and Charlie,the housing market doomsday prediction was musci to thier ears.They had started working out of Jamie's garage.with $110,000 Jamie had saved taking sailboats up and down the East Cost."
  Our investment strategy is simple.People hate to think of bad things happening,so they always understimate thier likelihood
  我们的投资策略很简单,人们不愿意接受坏事,所以总是低估它们发生的可能性What he said,我同意。“They strategy was simple and brilliant.Jamie and Charlie founds markets will sell options very cheaply on thing they will think will never happen.So when they were wrong,they were wrong small.But when they were right,they were right big.Within a few years they had turned $110,000 into $30million.But then it was time to go to New York city,so far,it wasn't going very well.
  Ben Rickert was a former trader in singapore for Chase who quit the whole game in disgust.He just happened to be Jamie's neighbour when they were in Colorado and they met walking dogs.But Ben was dark,he didn't think the whole system would fail,he thought the whold world was going down
  “Every one of these vegetables is fresh from my guys should start your own garden.Seeds are gonna be the new currency.”
  Ben had real experience in a big bank,Jamie and Charlie had never been in the Manhatten bank bathroom.
  But ben was done with the banking world.He was very clear.
  Oh god,i hate's a total waste of time.好烦,完全是在浪费时间。
  Oh come on,would you relax?别这样,放松点。There's a housing development 45 minutes outside town.Mark want us to check that out first.
  Well I hope there're some Cuban restaurants on the way there.Because i heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami.
  Please don't be chipper in the face of me being miserable.It really makes me hate you.
  How is wanting to eat good food being chipper?想吃好的还有错了?
  Hello?Who do these go for?$425,000 each?有人在吗?这些房子要卖给谁?每间42万?
  What do you want?干嘛?
  I’m lookin for Harvey.你好,我想找哈瑞。
  You want my landlord's dog?你要找我房东的狗?
  ...You landlord filled up his mortgage application using his dog's name?
  I guess so.Wait,has that asshole not being pay his mortgage?'Cause i've been paying my rent.
  Well,yeah,he is over 90 days deadlinquent.
  Seriously,man,am I gonna have to leave?‘Cause my kid just get settled in school,man .
  You should talk to your landlord about that,i'm sorry,i don't have any more information.You have a great day.
  Seriously man,is everything gonna be okay?It's not my fault,dude,i've been paying...
  Yeah,bithc better like me,send her ass to Cabo.
  那女人很喜欢我,我让她业绩好到去度假How many loans do you write each month?
  你每个月办理几件贷款?About 60.60件左右。What was it four years ago?四年前呢?
  10...maybe 15.I was a bartendr.Now i own boat.10到15起吧。我以前只是个酒保,现在我自己拥有一艘船。
  So do applicants ever get rejected?有人申请然后遭到驳回吗?
  Seriously?Look,if they get rejected,i suck at my job.你开玩笑吧。我要是驳回他们我吃什么。
  Even if they had no money?就算他们没钱也可以申请?
  I just leave the income section blank if I want.Corporate doesn't care.These people just want homes,and they go with the flow.
  Not our fault,simply the way the world works.不是我们的错。世界就是这样子。
  Your companies don't verify?Could you hold on a second?你们公司不会确认一遍申请数据吗?...失陪一下。
  I don't get it.why are they confessing?我不懂。他们干嘛不打自招?
  They're not confessing.They're bragging.才不是呢。他们在吹牛逼。
  It's time to call bullshit.该反制这些欺诈行为了。
  Bullshit on what?反制什么?Every fucking thing.整个金融体制。[委内特
  ]Are you done?骂够没有?God,i pull a muscle in my back from yelling.操,骂人骂得我后背肌肉都拉伤了。
  Mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up ,yet you quote us at a higher price on the bonds.Please explain that  to me,there's no way that makes sense.Why shouldn't we back out of this trade right now?
  Didn't I say that the big banks were clueless?didn't i say that?Now thier foot's on fire,they think thier steak is done,and you're surprised?
  我难道没跟你们说过那些大银行根本搞不清楚状况吗?现在他们火烧眉毛,还以为自己的牛排快煎好了。然后你们就沉不住气了?That's not stupidity,that's fraud.
  Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal,and i'll have my wife's brother arrested.
  I guess you just don't reliaze how clueless the whole system really is.
  Yes,there's some shady shit going down,but trust me,it's fueled by stupidity!
  Ladies and getlemen.Bussiness is good. Profits are strong ,and the mortgage continues to be the bedrock on which this economy is buit.房贷市场前景光明,利润回报丰厚。房贷仍然是美国的经济支柱。And yes,we had to take some losses in our subprime department last year,but those losses will be contained at only 5%.的确我们次贷部门去年有一定损失,但只有5%。
  I have a question,please.我有个问题。
  Sir,the Q&A is after my statements.but you know what,you seem anxious,how can l help you ?
  Would you say that it is a possibility or a probability that subprime losses stop at 5%?Thank you.你觉得次贷损失真的不会超过5%吗?I would say it is a very strong probability,indeed.非常有可能。Zero!Zero! there's a 0% chance that your subprime losses will stop at 5%.
  Our subprime department is fine,我们的次贷部门很健全。[前女友爆黑幕]Just hold on,okay?my brother's ex-girlfriend works for the SEC.She just told me she's in town,okay?So if we are missing something ,maybe she can tell me .you know,give me some insight.别急,先听我说。我哥前女友在证券交易所工作,她跟我说她会来这里。所以如果我们有什么疏忽的地方,她会告诉我的,给我们点意见。
  In the meantime,you go to the main floor and price some swaps.
  这个时间,你就去主楼层谈信用违约互换的价格。Well,autually,we're about to invest in housing bonds,and i was wondering if the SEC is worried about them at all.I know you're not allowed to tell me specifics,but just generally.我们现在想投资房贷债券,我想问你们交易所会不会担心这个交易债券。I know you're not allowed to tell me specifics,but just generally.
  I'm not here for SEC,i'm here my own dime.我不是代表证券交易来的。我自费过来的。I’m floating my resume to some big banks我最近在给各大银行投简历。How are you floating your resume to big banks?I mean,you're supposed to be the ones,you know,policing the big banks.
  你怎么会送履历给他们?你不应该是监督他们的人吗?Grow up,Jamie.成熟点,杰米。There're must be some kind of law against working for a financial institution right after you've been working in financial regulation,right?你既然在金融管制机构工作,肯定会有法律限制你去金融机构工作的啊。No,no.完全没有。
  [迈克尔压力山大]Lewis,can you come in early tomorrow,please?路易斯,明天你能早点来么?Dr.burry,if the investors withdraw,what's going to happen here?Are we done?
  布朗医生,如果那些投资人撤资,我们怎么办?我们就完了吗?Honestly,I don't know.我还真不知道。The bonds aren't going down,they won't's possible that we're in a completely fraudulent system.
  房贷债券没有跌,它们稳如泰山。也许我们根本就身处一个信用评级造假的世界!'re wrong.也可能是你估计错误。...Sure,it's possible i'm wrong.i just don't know how.I guess when someone's wrong,they never...They never know how.是。可能是我错了。我只是想不通,怎么可能?呵呵,可能每个犯错的人都想不通自己哪里错了吧。[本发飙]Don't do that.Stop,stop.Stop it ,stop.别跳了。别跳了。What?怎么了?Do you have any idea what you just did?你知道你们刚刚做了什么吗?Come on,we're just made the deal of our lifetimes,we should celebrate
  怎么啦?我们刚刚做完一项千载难逢的交易,庆祝一下嘛。You just bet against the American economy.Which means if we're right,people lose homes,people lose jobs.people lose retirement saving.people lose pensions.你们在跟整个美国经济对赌。如果我们真的赢了,就意味着人民会失去房子、工作、存款和退休金。You know what i hate about fucking banking?你知道我最恶心银行业哪一点么?It reduced people to numbers.Here's a number,every 1% unemployment goes up,40,000 people die.Did you know that?
  最恶心银行只把人简化成数字。这就是数字:失业率每上升1个百分点,4万人就会死。懂么?Just don't fucking dance.别他妈跳了。Whoa,i just got really scared.天呐,我突然觉得好恐怖。[逼急迈克尔]As you may know,our agreement allows me to take extraodinary measures when markets aren't functioning properly.我们曾达成共识:我们的合约允许我采取非常手段,来对付脱轨的市场。I currently have reasons to believe the mortgage bond market is fraudulent.
  我目前有理由相信房贷债券市场,正遭到有心操弄。So in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market,i decided to restrict investor's withdrawals.所以为了保护我的投资人免受其害,我决定禁止投资人赎回资金,Until further notice.除非我发布通知。Sincerely,Dr.Micheal J.Burry.迈克尔布朗医生敬上。“I'm suing."我要提出起诉。“Everyone,deep in thier heart,is waiting for the end of the world to come.“每个人的内心深处,其实都在期待世界末日。
  “Will you listen to me ?This is like the end of capitalism.This is like the Dark Ages all over gain.你听我说啊?这是资本主义的终结。我们又要回到黑暗时代。[华尔街日报冷门羹]What am i supposed to do ?you want me to write a piece called"We're All Fucked “?你们想我怎么做?写篇文章标题叫“我们死定了”?
  Yes,that's a perfect tittle!This level of criminality is unprecedented,even on fucking Wall Street.多好的标题。这是华尔街前所未有的犯罪规模。Jamie....and this is me being honest here,okay?杰米,我就直话直说了吧。It took my years to buid my relationship on Wall Street.No bank or ratings agency is going to confirm the story like this,just because it comes from two guys in a ...sorry,garage .
  我花了很多年才跟华尔街打好关系。没有银行或信用机构会证实这则消息来源的真实性,尤其这种消息出自两个住在车库里的人。I thought you were for real,you know,i'll have to say i really did.妈的我一直以为你很正派。真的。Yeah you try being for real for a three-year-old ,and a wife getting her master's degree.我也想正派。但我有三岁小孩要养,老婆还在念硕士。I’m not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch.我不想因为你们的直觉就断送名声。Thanks for coming ,guys.很高兴见到你们。[马克陈情]
  Now anyone who knows me knows that i have no problem telling they're wrong.认识我的人都知道,我总是勇于指出别人的错误。We live in a era of fraud in America.美国正处于欺诈的时代Not just in banking ,but in government,education,religion,food,even baseball.不止银行在欺骗大众,政府,教育,宗教,食物,甚至棒球界都在骗。What bothers me isn't that fraud is not nice or fraud is mean.困扰我的并不是欺骗本身的不道德和恶毒,It's that for 15,000 years fraud and short-sighted thinking had never,ever worked.Not once.
  而是持续了一万五千年的欺骗和短视,这根本就行不通的。Eventually,people got,caught,things go south.迟早我们会东窗事发,锒铛入狱。 When the hell did we forget all that?我们什么时候才能吸取教训?I thought we were better than this,i really did.
  我想我们人类还能有点良知。真的。And the fact that we're not doesn't make me feel all right or superior.It makes me fee...Sad,事实上我们并没有。我没有因此觉得自己多高尚而与众不同。我只觉得...很悲哀。I just know at the end of the day,average people are going to be the ones that are gonna have to pay for all this.Because they always,always do.我只知道,到头来,收拾烂摊子的只会是普通老百姓。每次都是这样。That's my two cents.thanks you.以上。
  谢谢。[迈克尔难过自己关]I met my wife on profile said,"I am a medical student with only one eye,an awkward social manner,and $145,000 in student loans,she wrote back,"you're just what i've been looking for."She meant honest.So let me be honest.我在一个配对网站认识了我太太。当时我的档案里写的是:“我是一个单眼的医学生,行为怪异,还背着14万的助学贷款。她回信说:”你就是我要找的人。”
  我知道她的意思是我很坦诚。所以现在我依然要对你们坦诚。Making money is not like i thought it would be .this buisness kills the part of life that is essential,the part that had nothing to do with business.我对赚钱的看法有点改观了。这个产业扼杀了老百姓的基本生活,包括那些原本跟金融业毫无瓜葛的东西。For the past few years,my insides,have felt like they're eating themselves.All the people I respected won't talk to me anymore,except through lawyers.
  People...want authority to tell them how to value things but they choose these authority not based on facts or results.They choose it because it seems authoritative and familiar.And i'm not and never have been"familiar".
  人们依靠权威机构来评等,但他们不是不用事实或结果去评估它们,只盲从于权威或习惯。而我从来不是一个让人觉得亲切和习惯的人。 i've come to the sullen reliazation that i must close down the fund.所以我总算痛苦地领悟到,是时候停止这个对冲基金了。[结束]“I have a feeling that in a few years people are gonna be doing what they always do when the economy tanks.“我有预感。没过几年,人们又会重复经济崩盘时做的事情。”They will be blamming immigrants and poor people."
  然后嫁祸于新移民和穷人身上。But Mark was wrong,in the few years that followed,hundreds of bankers and rating agencies executives go to jail.The SEC was completely overhauled .And the Congress had no choice but to break up the big banks.
  马克估计错了。随后的几年,无数的银行家和信评机构人员去坐牢,国会被迫拆分大银行。Just kidding.开玩笑的。The bank took the money the American people gave them and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses,And lobby Congress to kill big reform.And then they blamed immigrants and poor people.银行继续拿着人们的钱,付给自己高额红利,并游说国会取消改革。随后把矛头指向移民和穷人。And this time,even teacher.甚至教师。
  “You knwo once we sell,we'll be just like the rest of them.You know that.你知道,一旦我们现在卖了,我们就跟那些人一样了。““No,we're not,we're not the bad guys here."没有,我们没跟他们一样。
  "We didn't defraud the American people and prey on thier dreams of owning a home.All right?“
  我们并没有欺诈老百姓,也没有利用他们的买房梦。对不对?“They did.Now we get to kick them in the teeth."他们有。所以现在我们要让他们打落牙齿和血吞。
  “i means,it's now or never,Mark."再不行动就太迟了。
  “Okay.Sell it all.“好吧。卖空它。

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